Wow obviously what you consider “good intelligence” includes ignoring all of what has already happened the last 10 months. Ukraine has already had 3 significant victories ousting Russia from its territory. The thing is that Russia was NEVER going to win this war. Even if Russia had succeeded on day one of installing a pro Russian government in Kiev the Ukrainian people do NOT want to be aligned with Russia. They have showed this repeatedly over the last 20 years. Military occupation or not Russia was never going to be able hold onto Ukraine just like the USSR couldn’t hold on to Afghanistan.