Whatever the production rate, the big question is how long Russia can keep it up. Ukraine and the West are pretty much holding Russia in check without even breaking a sweat, while Russia is going all-in with everything it has.
Putting an entire country on a war economy to take just a few square kilometers of fields every month is not five-dimensional chess. It's just stupid.
Besides, you can produce as many weapons as you want, but how effective are they if no one mans them or you hand them to untrained individuals? And as has always been the problem in Russia's history, you never know when those weapons are going to be turned around against you.
Anyone can sprint for a while, but at some point, you will run out of steam. No one knows what will run out first for Russia: tanks, men, machinery, money, or the people's tolerance. That's what you get for starting a 3 day SMO that lasts for 2+ years. Even if Russia wins, it has already lost. Russia will likely never recover from this war. Ukraine will have Western support to rebuild regardless of the outcome. Putin has doomed Russia to be a puppet gas station for China.
Russia has 5 or 6 allies of varying degrees of commitment to its war, most of which are of little help. Even Lukashenko is only tacitly supporting Russia, or there would be Belarusians in Ukraine. The best North Korea can do is return half-century-old artillery. Chinese government might tacitly support Russia, but banks and other companies are backing off because of fear of being caught in Western sanctions. Xi is no fool; China's economy is a disaster right now, and he knows that it will get worse without Western trade, and no amount of trade with Russia will ever equal the trade that China does with the US and Europe. The US, Europe, and Japan make up over 40% of China's trade. Russia... 6% and that's the new number, it's doubled since the war started. Russia just isn't an important partner for China for anything other than energy.
Most importantly, Ukraine doesn't have to wait for Russia—it just has to wait out Putin.
