Justin Ohms
2 min readAug 19, 2023

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Exactly. I think hybrids will be at the core of a long transition period. They fit in better with existing infrastructure and second-hand markets. We are actually already in that transition period and have been for quite a long time now. I think we are still too early to say what the long-term costs and efficiencies of older EVs in the secondary market will look like. Modern EVs aren't that old and early models are not that common, as an example my current daily driver was made 3 years before Tesla produced their first car. In ten years we might be seeing a good used market for EVs, but I'm not sure if the used market for EV cars is going to look more like the IC used card market, or more like the used cell phone market. Battery lifespan and replacement alone are huge considerations.

As far as the transition timing goes, it really couldn't have happened 20 years ago. The technology wasn't there. Tesla didn't release its first car until 15 years ago and while there were other electrics that came and went before that, there were reasons why they didn't last and no, it's not all conspiracy reasons. The main barrier has always been energy density. There was nothing to really meet that requirement until Lithium-Ion batteries came along. Lithium-Ion batteries weren't commercialized until the mid-90s and they were nowhere near as durable and capable as they are today and they were not large. What we would consider a modern Lithium-Ion battery didn't come around until right around the turn of the century. That was just 23 years ago. Even then, scaling them up from what you might need in a drill to what you would need for a car was prohibitively expensive. Tesla did a lot of groundwork in that area (and so did a lot of other people like Toyota) But really 20 years ago there was just barely the beginning of the technology to produce hybrids much less full EVs. Remember the Prius was created in 1997 and Toyota didn't feel it was ready for widespread production around the world until 2000. Science is what it is and we live in the world we have not the world that we wish we lived in. For us to have had the transition we are having now but 20 years ago, we would have had to have all the technological advancements of the last 20 years starting in the 80s.

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